DOUBLE DIGIT INFLATION – CAN IT BE CONTAINED?

“Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man”.
-Ronald Reagan.

From pins to ships; from retail customer to wholesale importer; the buzz word today is 'Inflation'. The year 2008 has taught us many costly, un-timely lessons that have hindered our growth and have given us a chance to rethink our belief; the most valuable of those lessons is ‘inflation’. It rose to 13% in 2008, setting a record ever since independence. The world's inflation was at 2.2 m% in 2008. Zimbabwe was one of the countries most worsely hit by inflation. Its high inflation rate of 13 m% persuaded it to mint a 100 billion dollar note to check national bankruptcy. This instance is one of the most unthinkable ways the world had sought refuge under to escape inflation.

India’s 2009-10 Economic Survey Report informs a high double-digit increase in food inflation, with signs of inflation spreading to various other sectors as well. The food inflation, which was at 12.47% last month remained above the 16% level for most part of the last year. The fall was mainly due to drop in prices of vegetables, especially potatoes and onions. The primary articles index and fuel prices index, however, witnessed an increasing trend at 14.5 percent and 14.29 percent respectively. The fuel prices including petrol, diesel, kerosene and cooking gas were raised in the last June.Wholesale price inflation, the measure for overall increase in prices, was at 10.55 percent in June.

The 'Quantity theory of money' describes inflation as: 'too much of money chasing too few goods'.As per Keynesian concept, it is 'Excess of demand for goods and services over their available supply'.If described more precisely, it would be: 'Gradual, unchecked and sustained rise in price level for a prolonged period of time, which generates expectations of a further rise'.

The following methodologies may be adopted to reduce the inflation rate and also to handle greater challenges.

Today, the primary tool for controlling inflation is 'monetary policy'. A low positive inflation is usually targeted, as deflationary conditions are seen as dangerous for the health of the economy. In Indian scenario, the Prime Minister has promised a low inflation rate of 6% by this December. High interest rates and slow growth of the money supply are the traditional ways sought after by RBI to fight inflation. Monetarists emphasize keeping the 'growth rate of money' steady to control inflation (increasing interest rates, slowing the rise in the money supply).
'Inflation targeting' can be defined as a 'framework for policy decisions in which, the central bank makes an explicit commitment to conduct policy to meet a publicly announced numerical inflation target within a particular time frame'. The target can be a point or a band. RBI is already studying world's successful models for inflation targeting and is planning to implement an 'Indianised solution' in the battle against inflation.

'Core-Inflation' concept takes only the rate of inflation that is not affected by external factors. The rate of inflation that is caused due to other factors beyond the control of the Government such as 'petroleum price hike' and 'global climate change' are ignored. When monitored effectively, the domains of mismanagement can be identified and necessary remedy shall be applied.

Increase in exports causes shortage of supply in domestic market. As exports provide more income for producer and more ‘forex’ for the nation, its increase will be naturally continued, starving the domestic market. The Govt. of India has already taken steps viz- not allowing export of 'non-basmati rice' and wheat. This has resulted in reduction of food inflation. The same methodology can be applied for various other commodities too.

'Administered prices', the prices fixed arbitrarily for certain commodities like food, petrol, metals, etc. by the Govt. tend to have a great impact on common man's budget and hence; if increased even slightly, would cause havoc.The Govt. has reacted in this issue by non-revival of issue prices of essential commodities like wheat and rice. It has also enforced new orders under 'Essential Commodities Act, 1955' which empowers the State Governments to release hoarded stock for distribution and to invoke stock limits in respect of wheat and pulses for 6 months.

The Government should create special programmes that educate the people on how, when and where to invest their capital in times of inflation. Such programmes should also familiarise pepople to the various means the Govt. has undertaken to curtail inflation.

Introduction of special management education focussed on inflation is also welcomeable.

Currently, two methods are employed to measure inflation rate viz- WPI(Wholesale Price Index) and CPI(Consumer Price Index). WPI is calculated every week using the price values of 435 essential commodities that have a heavy weightage on common man's life. CPI is calculated using the retail/consumer prices of essential commodities.PPI (Producer Price Index) measures the price change form a producer's perspective unlike CPI which measures the price change from a customer's perspective. The major advantage of using PPI is that: here only basic prices are used, taxes & trade margins are excluded. Hence, price changes at crude and intermediate stages can be identified before the product goes into final stage. Moreover, it is an accurate measurer of inflation.

WPI is calculated only for commodities. The 'Services' sector accounts for about 55% of our GDP and hence, there is need to develop service price indices for selected service sectors (roads, railways, port, banking, telecommunications, post, insurance, etc.) particularly in the national accounts framework. SPI (Service Price Index) creation would ensure a controlled growth in these sectors, which have considerably grown through the years 1950-2009. This move is spearheaded by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

'Flexibility in savings' normally means money isn't tied up for long periods of time. The national savings may be in such a way that they provide reasonable interest; yet, at the same time, should be liquid enough to use at emergency. Investments made must return maximum profit in a minimum period. Infrastructure and HealthCare are two areas that match these criteria. If a portion of our capital is spent on these areas, they would be much fruitful.

Crude oil is the raw material for fertilisers and fuel. Hence, it's price & availability have a direct impact on agricultural produce, transport & industry. When its price increases, people go for alternatives of crude-oil like methanol(from Sugarcane) and rinseed oil. This urge causes the price of these alternative commodities to increase as well. Thus, virtually it controls the production cost of all other materials.India already has enough oil fields to meet 60% of it's demand. The rest of 40% can be achieved using alternate energy means such as solar and wind energy. Indian Govt. is already taking steps like construction of a solar power-plant in Rajasthan and expansion of the 'Kayathar' wind energy station in Tamil Nadu to effectively harness these sources.

A fixed exchange rate (pegged exchange rate) is a type of exchange rate regime wherein a currency's value is matched to the value of another single currency or to an another measure of value, such as gold. It can be used to stabilise the value of our 'rupee'.
Rapid urbanisation and high economic growth experienced by ther urban countries in the last few years has resulted in the upsurge in property values.The importance of facillitating supply of affordable housing to the people and the necessity of designing a right mix of policy initiatives to encourgae house accquistion highlight the necessity of tracking the movement of residential house prices. The National Housing Bank had earlier set up a Technical Advisory Group (TAG) to explore the possibility of constructing a real estate price index. 'NHB RESIDEX' has been launched in 2007 as the first housing price index in the country which aims to track price movements in residential properties in selected cities over time.

For 2009, inflation rate in India stood at 11.49% Y-o-Y. This rate reflects the general increase in prices, taking into fact the purchasing power of the common man. According to the Economic Survey Report for 2009-10, economic growth decelerated to 6.7% in 2008-09, from 9% in 2007-08. The economy is expected to grow by 8.7% in 2010-11, with a return to a growth rate of 9% in 2011-12.
“Inflation is like sin; every government denounces it and every government practices it”
- Frederick Reith Ross.

The above lines clearly depict the nature of inflation. India is already in the right path towards deflation. If certain measures like creation of inflation-awareness and eradication of inflation-fear are taken, we would even pioneer western giants in this journey. To avoid global degradation, every country must learn to co-operate and correlate. Co-operation brings us benefit and allows us escape from a global bankruptcy. Correlation allows us to better equip ourselves in the battle for universal sovereignty.

"Need for Reservation in Our Country"

When evaluating the need for 'reservation', most youth vote against it. This particular agenda cannot be dealt with by citing only the scenario prevailing today.Let us go back to the immediate post-independence era. The country has one single party- the 'Indian National Congress' and is hoping to place herself in a humble, yet honorable position in the world. As India had just relieved herself from the clutches of Britian(Don't forget about the exhaustion that remained during the pre-independence scenario), she was unable to cater the needs of her own population. The problem of 'partition' added to her tragedies. For a few years(1947-1950), she remained 'united/integrated' mainly due to the chaos, confusion & celebration prevalent in those years. After 1950, her internal affairs rose beyond tolerable levels. Though being declared as a "SECULAR, SOVEREIGN, DEMOCRATIC" Republic, she had many unruly happenings that challenged the very essence of this declaration. One such mis-happening can be found even today- the mean act of "Untouchability/Caste-based discrimination". In a region where the masses were of lower caste, the minority crowd of the so-called higher caste would dominate. Do mind the fact that this 'domination' is not by any proven physical/mental supremacy, but by mere birth and false-belief. The single party government at that time was of no help as the party leaders at the state level were also of the higher caste and the decisions of the party were made by a small "English speaking elite class". A widespread disruption rose among the people. This led to two major events:
1. Arise of new, rational, more cordial 'Regional Parties'
2. Catering of special attention to lower/under-privileged castes

As per the 'guidance' given by "Kalelkar Commission"(1953) and "Mandal Commission"(1979) norms were made to give reservation for socially backward classes. There arose a huge 'nation-wide' opposition triggered by this and was suppressed effectively. Only by this move was the government able to console the socially backward masses and it was a right, just & apt move. If at-all the reservation was absent, the disruption would have rose even much; the gift of education that is enjoyed by the lower-caste people for atmost two generations would have been denied and still the nation would be in a pathetic, 'no-return' journey to destruction.

Now the reader may get a question in his mind: " How long will they enjoy it? It is enough!"

For such hypocrites, I would like to say that the so called higher caste enjoyed exemptions and exclusions in a much broader perspective for nearly 1000 years from the vedic times. Poor 'Children of the Gods'( as Mr. M.K.Gandhi would call them) have enjoyed such reservations only for 60 years; so, it is not long enough yet. Your locality may seem to be teaming with developed lower-caste people, yet, for "ASLI INDIA", there remains a lot to be done.

33%? Is it really necessary in "Politics & Administration"?

Hey guys, before getting into the heat of this text, I must disclose some words for every woman reading this:"NO OFFENSE"!

Whenever I get myself in a scenario with an agenda on the "Women in Politics and Administration", I am showered with references on Ms.J.Jayalalitha(Former C.M. of T.N.), Smt.Sonia Gandhi(Leader of the UPA), Mrs.Indira Gandhi(Former P.M. of India) & Mrss. Kiran Bedi(First Woman I.P.S.). I myself have been fascinated with the feats of these three very great women. To cite a few of their achievements:
1. Ms. J.Jayalalitha
* Fist woman Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu(Excluding Mrs. Janaki Ramachandran who had held the office for 24 days in 1988).
* Excellent academic and sports records till her entrance in the 'Film Industry'.
* Splendid performer in films; a really good vocalizer; a recipient of the 'Kalaimamani' award.
2. Mrs. Indira Gandhi
* First woman Prime Minister of India.
* Excellent handling of the emergency situation during the Indo-Pak war of 1971.
* First woman president of the Indian National Congress.
3. Mrs. Kiran Bedi
* First woman I.P.S. in the country.
* Founder of two NGOs in India: Navjyoti for welfare and preventive policing and the India Vision Foundation for prison reformation, drug abuse prevention and child welfare.
4. Smt. Sonia Gandhi
* Current Chair Person of the United Progressive Alliance.
* Witty handling of the Parliamentary elections - The AAM AADMI campaign.
* Persuasive role in the framing of 'Right to Information' act.

I've noticed a curious evenness in the personal life of these great women. Ms. J.Jayalalitha is a bachelor; Mrs. Indira Gandhi is the widow of Shri. Feroz Gandhi; Mrs. Soniya Gandhi is the widow of Shri. Rajiv Gandhi. The basic similarity is that "all the three wemen have achieved their feat
in the absence of their masculine counter-parts". If they've had their masculine companions, their possibility of achieving would never be concrete. Now I may get an opposition as: "They were being subordinated by their husbands". Think of Mrs. Subbulakshmi(The Uncrowned Queen of Indian Classical Music), Dr. Kamala Selvaraj(Renowned Gynecologist), Mrs. Y.G.Rajalakshmi Parthasarathy(Dean, The PSBB Group of schools)- these women were from the same country and roughly of the same time as the above mentioned trio; yet, they've managed to achieve even with their masculine counter-parts alive. How is this possible? Lets be frank. There are a few tasks that women specialise at. They have their own strengths in those fields where men can't rule the roost. Likewise, men have their own monopolies.

There is a generally accepted opinion that "Married Indian Women are dependent on their Males". The act of the Govt. of India to ban women from being trained as Jet Pilots proves this. It costs about 6 crores to train a jet fighter pilot. Women leave the job after marriage, causing a heavy loss to the Govt.. Men, on the other hand, tend to remain in the job. A career in public life as an M.P. is more depriving than being a fighter pilot in terms of time and personal motivation. Recently, a survey on the M.P.s with the least percentage of being present at the Parliament shows that most of them are women. Male M.P.s like Mr. M.K.Alagiri have also been ranked in top positions in the survey, but, 'majority' is the factor. "Matriarchy" may have been the style of the Government in the past, but, for today's women, keeping away from politics is better.I am not advocating subjugation of women by this. Instead, if they focus on the areas that they are 'naturally' dominant at, they would shine even better!

Center-State Relations in India

CENTER STATE RELATIONS IN INDIA:

INDIAN DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM:
India is administered by the Westminster system of “Parliamentary Governance” at the Centre, with a Constitution framed by keeping the English Constitution in mind. The relationship between the Union and the State Governments has always been a matter of controversy. Parties with different political ideologies have occupied the positions of power in various states. They may not necessarily conform to the terms at the Centre. This complex and sensitive situation could adversely affect Centre-State relationships. In India, episodes of bitter Centre-State relationships have been repeated many times since independence, the basic reason for this being the hunger for political power.
There are 3 specific lists-
1.Union List,
2.State List and
3.Concurrent List
- that regulate the power of Union Government and the State Governments as per terms laid down by the Constitution. The Parliament has exclusive powers of legislation regarding the items included in the lists; and these lists require uniformity of legislation in the interest of the country. Seen from this view point, the nature of the Centre-State relationship is quite clear and transparent. However, invoking constitutional powers, State Governments have often been toppled through manipulations by a powerful Central Government. This typical feature of Indian polity has sparked off passionate debates in various quarters. Although our Constitution provides good legal tools for protection of the State Governments, the implementation of these measures is altogether a different affair. For this to materialize, the socio-political awareness of both the masses and the political class will have to increase. Further, a democratically elected State Government must be able to stand up for itself.

ISSUES UNDER CONSIDERATION:
In a discussion on Centre-State relations in India, the focus is mainly on three issues-
1.The legal provisions of the Constitution vis-à-vis Centre-State relationships, i.e. the three lists.
2. The dominance of a powerful Central Government over a weak State Government through its powers or through legal battles.
3.The dominance of a powerful Governor over a weak State Government .
These are the salient aspects that characterize the relationships between the Centre and the States. The Centre- State relations is of great importance in a country like India constrained by regionalism, religion, uneven development, demand for autonomy, identity politics, conflicting political interests, caste and race. The Centre- State relationships in India have always been with conflicts and this partly follows from the arrangements made in the Constitution.

EARLIER ATTEMPTS TO RESOLVE DISPUTES:
The relationship between the Centre and the States in India can be best described as “A work in progress”. This topic has been studied at length by important commissions at the national level. The Justice R.S. Sarkaria Commission did so from 1983-1988 and submitted a 1600 page report with almost 250 specific suggestions; but it is generally accepted that most of them supported the status quo and that the rest were not implemented. A new commission was set up in 2007, headed by Justice M.M.Punchi, former Chief Justice of India, with a two year mandate. The outcome of these ongoing national debates holds the key to when, or even whether, India can break out of the sub-optimal patterns of governance that are rooted in eras long past.

SOME INSTANCES:
Governments in states like Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal which have large mineral resources, the development of which comes under the concurrent list had the rug pulled out from under their feet on various occasions. There have been numerous instances of the Centre dictating where the investments for the downstream production facilities would go. Also, they went far away devoid of economic logic; in fact, artifices like freight subsidies were introduced to make such investments viable in distant States. The concurrent power of the States meant virtually nothing, since the ultimate power of approval for mining leases lay with the Central Government which, in any case, also controlled the related investment clearances.

PHENOMENAL CHANGE:
What could not be achieved through various commissions or acts of the Parliament has, in some measure, already been achieved by the evolution of the Indian polity from single-party rule to coalition governments. The last two decades have seen the emergence of coalitions with constituent parties from around the country. This has led to a regional assertiveness that has redefined governance at both the State and Central level. To go back to the example of mineral rich states, the last decade has seen many of them enact laws or rules which favour the recommendation of mining leases to those applicants who also commit to investing in the State.
Such policies have upset the apple cart of the Centre dictating investment terms in heavy industry as well as in various other spheres. This has also led to a shift in the balance of power. While major mineral development continues to be in the Concurrent List, the State Government’s recommendation-and the role of the State bureaucracy in processing these in a litigation-free manner has now acquired at least as much or more importance as the Central Government’s final approval. This shift of power in favour of the State Government is much more evident when the State happens to be governed by a regional ally of the coalition at the Centre, and often the State Government’s recommendation acquires the tone of an offer that the Centre cannot refuse.
This shift in balance of power is evident at the Centre as well as in important ministries, such as telecom which is held by a representative of a regional ally. In such instances, even when the subject may not be a part of the Concurrent List, and when ostensibly all policy recommendations are prepared either by the Central bureaucracy or autonomous regulators, the final diktat always emanates from the State Capitals and not from New Delhi.

WHAT IS LAGGING YET?
It is important to note that none of these shifts in power, while and real, have yet been reflected in Constitutional changes. It has been argued, however that they should be adequately reflected in order to more accurately highlight the federal spirit of the republic. It can also be argued that the current top-down style of economic policy could never be sustainable in a country with several diversities like India in the long run.

CENTRE’S NEW ROLE:
Be that as it may, there is a strong case for Centre’s enhanced role in some specific spheres. Take for instance the crucial area of law and order. Unlike certain aspects of economic policy which are on the Concurrent List, law and order has always been a State subject and Central intervention under Article 355/366 of the Constitution is intended to be invoked only in the rarest of cases. Indeed, in recent years, that has been the case. In earlier years, however, the Article 356- the much reviled power of the Central Government to dismiss elected State Governments had been abused many times for meeting political ends. This shift in practice can also be linked to the rise of regional political parties, to whom this all-encompassing power of the Centre is an anathema.
This shift has often left the Centre in a position resembling that of a bystander, not because of the lack of Constitutional provisions, but for the lack of political will to intervene. For some years now, the standard response of the Central Government to law and order fraying in the country has been to practically to wash it’s hands off with the pretext that it is a “State Subject”. This is occasionally countered by State Governments with the argument that Central support, in terms of intelligence, logistics and paramilitary troops, is inadequate. The irony is that two of the vestiges of the Raj, the national police and the civil servants, continue to survive, and play key roles in both sides of this disconnect. Likewise, “Terrorism”, another disputed phenomenon has been always a disputed matter. However, the spate of terrorist attacks in the country in recent years has created a groundswell of support for the idea that the Centre should play a far more proactive role in handling the matter.

HOW I CONCLUDE:
The Centre-State divide needs a revisit. Both procedures and institutions need restructuring to meet the new developmental challenges. Everyone knows that there is lack of adequate reforms in power, education, health and agriculture, which lie in the purview of the States. We do not have the luxury of time; our archaic approach and institutions are inconsistent with ambitious growth targets. Some things are obvious. These need not await the recommendations of future commissions on Centre-State relations. A wake up call is overdue.

"INSTRUCTORS!" TRY TO BE ORATORS FIRST!

A good student always envisages to be an instructor. Being one is not a 'Herculian' job. Vivid understanding of the key skills required meets nearly 70% of the credibility status. To crisp things, I have outlined the allegory for a rational instructor.

SLCDMT

S-Being Simple-> An instructor is expected to be simple - in form & in language.Flowery words never do the job. Instances from 'History' depict the liking of the masses to fine, simple, right-fashioned language. I must mention here that 'a language with too many continuums makes the effort of an instructor futile'.

C-Being Clear-> "Too many Cooks spoil the broth" is an exceptionally common saying. Likewise, an instructor must be clear with his theme. His verdicts must be unambiguous. Avoidance of proposing contrived facts is most welcomable.

L-Being Loud-> Good audibility trait is one among the basic needs of a rational instructor. I do not prescribe a 'Crescendo' or a 'Dimunendo'here by naming 'L' as 'Being Loud'.Discrimination of vocal pitch, attitudinal changes to context & the so called 'josh' are the makers of a phenomenal success in a class.

D-Do a study on the Students-> A good instructor must do a study on the students convened. He must analyse their exposure to the topic under discussion & coach them as per the results obtained. He musn't be too kiddish with his explanations.

M-Maintain the 'Minutes'-> A first-rate instructor must have a look at the minutes of his previous class in prior to his subsequent sessions. Questioning the listeners about the theme discussed in the last class projects a contorary portrait of him among them.

T-Time Management-> Apart from the above mentioned traits, time management is also extremely vital. An ace instructor switches through the topics as per the proposed agenda without hastening. He senses the feeling of boredom among the audience & transforms the topic in a witty way.

Today's students are much phenomenal with their expectations. To fulfil them, an instructor must be humble enough to follow the above said allegory. For those who oppose, "Bear with the Audience!".

Marriage Ceremonies-The transformation from disciplined social gatherings to advertised money making venues

Olden Scenario:
Marriages were meant to be a function for announcing the joint life of a couple to their dearest ones- their friends and family.A marriage venue would be the place for a decent,lovable,well-mannered crowd. People attended marriage ceremonies to give their share of support to the newly wed couple; to bless them with sheer good-heartedness & to gift them with the humblest of things.

Today's Scenario:
Marriages are advertised like nothing else in these times. Where ever one goes during the so-called MARRIAGE MONTHS, one would never miss a "Wedding Banner" or a "Wedding Poster".I really wonder on the social mindset of these people who just propagate their family function like a mere "3rd Grade Social Gathering". It should be really embarrassing for the bride and the groom to see their images near a bus-stand or someone doing all sort of nasty things to it. People nowadays just attend marriage ceremonies to showcase their wardrobe & to peep into other's.I must not fail to mention the things gifted in a rational wedding. One could see a huge load of costly home appliances, but, "Are they from the heart?" . In most of the cases, the answer is "No". People nowadays gift someone expecting a more valuable return-gift.

What Should Change?
The hard,steady remedy to this transformation is a good, dynamic change in the mindset of the people. For those who attend marriage ceremonies "Treat the bride and the groom as your own kith and kin.If you have any hostility, it would be much better if you just don't attend the wedding ceremony". Discard all jealousy and you will surely feel "GUILT FREE".

Hey Friends!

Hello all!

This is my first blog. Hardwork is needed, but don't ignore PLAY for it.